Few studies have looked into climate change resilience of populations of wild animals. We use a model higher vertebrate, the green sea turtle, as its life history is fundamentally affected by climatic conditions, including temperature-dependent sex determination and obligate use of beaches subject to sea level rise (SLR). We use empirical data from a globally important population in West Africa to assess resistance to climate change within a quantitative framework. We project 200 years of primary sex ratios (1900-2100) and create a digital elevation model of the nesting beach to estimate impacts of projected SLR. Primary sex ratio is currently almost balanced, with 52% of hatchlings produced being female. Under IPCC models, we predict: (a) an increase in the proportion of females by 2100 to 76%-93%, but cooler temperatures, both at the end of the nesting season and in shaded areas, will guarantee male hatchling production; (b) IPCC SLR scenarios will lead to 33.4%-43.0% loss of the current nesting area; (c) climate change will contribute to population growth through population feminization, with 32%-64% more nesting females expected by 2120; (d) as incubation temperatures approach lethal levels, however, the population will cease growing and start to decline. Taken together with other factors (degree of foraging plasticity, rookery size and trajectory, and prevailing threats), this nesting population should resist climate change until 2100, and the availability of spatial and temporal microrefugia indicates potential for resilience to predicted impacts, through the evolution of nest site selection or changes in nesting phenology. This represents the most comprehensive assessment to date of climate change resilience of a marine reptile using the most up-to-date IPCC models, appraising the impacts of temperature and SLR, integrated with additional ecological and demographic parameters. We suggest this as a framework for other populations, species and taxa.

© 2018 the Association for the Study of Animal Behaviour Nest site selection is a critical behaviour, particularly in species with no parental care, as it can greatly impact offspring survival. Marine turtles depend on sandy beaches to nest, where they select from a range of microhabitats that may differently affect hatchling survival and phenotype. Here we describe the degree of nest site selection at one of the largest green turtle rookeries globally, in Guinea-Bissau, West Africa, and how this impacts offspring. In 2013 and 2014 we recorded the spatial distribution of 1559 nests, and monitored 657 females during oviposition, to assess population and individual preferences on nesting site. Overall, females tended to nest close to the vegetation, at a preferred elevation of 4.8–5.0 m, which was above the highest spring tide (4.7 m), enhancing clutch survival. Individuals displayed high repeatability in nesting microhabitat type (open sand, forest border and forest), distance along the beach, distance to the vegetation and elevation, which may result from this behaviour having a genetic basis or from fine-scale nest site philopatry. Hatchlings from cooler nests were larger, potentially dispersing faster and more able to evade predators, while smaller hatchlings, from warmer nests, retained more energetic reserves (residual yolk), which may also be advantageous for initial dispersal, particularly if food is scarce. Thus, individual preferences in nest site selection led to trade-offs in offspring phenotype, but overall, most nesting females selected sites that increased offspring survival, suggesting that nest site selection is an adaptive trait that has been under selection. As under future climate change scenarios females nesting in upper shaded areas should have higher fitness, individual consistency in nesting microhabitat provides opportunity for natural selection to occur.

© Inter-Research 2017. Global climate change is expected to have major impacts on biodiversity. Sea turtles have temperature-dependent sex determination, and many populations produce highly femalebiased offspring sex ratios, a skew likely to increase further with global warming. We estimated the primary sex ratio at one of the world's largest green turtle Chelonia mydas rookeries in Guinea-Bissau, West Africa, and explored its resilience to climate change. In 2013 and 2014, we deployed data loggers recording nest (n = 101) and sand (n = 30) temperatures, and identified hatchling sex by histological examination of gonads. A logistic curve was fitted to the data to allow predictions of sex ratio across habitats and through the nesting season. The population-specific pivotal temperature was 29.4°C, with both sexes produced within incubation temperatures from 27.6 to 31.4°C: the transitional range of temperatures (TRT). Primary sex ratio changed from maleto female-biased across relatively small temporal and spatial scales. Overall it was marginally female-biased, but we estimated an exceptionally high male hatchling production of 47.7% (95% CI: 36.7-58.3%) and 44.5% (95% CI: 33.8-55.4%) in 2013 and 2014, respectively. Both the temporal and spatial variation in incubation conditions and the wide range of the TRT suggest resilience and potential for adaptation to climate change if the present nesting habitat remains unchanged. These findings underline the importance of assessing site-specific parameters to understand populations' responses to climate change, particularly with regard to identifying rookeries with high male hatchling production that may be key for the future conservation of sea turtles under projected global warming scenarios.

© 2016 Inter-Research. Outbreaks of fibropapillomatosis (FP), a neoplastic infectious disease of marine turtles, have occurred worldwide since the 1980s. Its most likely aetiological agent is a virus, but disease expression depends on external factors, typically associated with altered environments. The scarcity of robust long-term data on disease prevalence has limited interpretations on the impacts of FP on turtle populations. Here we model the dynamics of FP at 2 green turtle foraging aggregations in Puerto Rico, through 18 yr of capture-mark-recapture data (1997-2014). We observed spatiotemporal variation in FP prevalence, potentially modulated via individual site-fidelity. FP ex pression was residency dependent, and FP-free individuals developed tumours after 1.8 ± 0.8 yr (mean ± SD) in the infected area. Recovery from the disease was likely, with complete tumour regression occurring in 2.7 ± 0.7 yr (mean ± SD). FP does not currently seem to be a major threat to marine turtle populations; however, disease prevalence is yet unknown in many areas. Systematic monitoring is highly advisable as human-induced stressors can lead to deviations in host- pathogen relationships and disease virulence. Finally, data collection should be standardized for a global assessment of FP dynamics and impacts.